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Index Funds: The 12-Step Program for Active Investors (Hardcover)

by Mark T Hebner
ISBN: 0-9768023-0-9




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Harry M. Markowitz explains Portfolio Theory: what it is and how it's used from a top-down model from the asset classes to the investments. He covers Standard Deviation, Variance, Correlation, and Covariance. Markowitz also explains what happened in 2008 with Modern Portfolio Theory. (39 Min.)

Harry M. Markowitz - Portfolio Theory and 2008

Mark covers historic recovery patterns and probability of future returns, the risks and returns that come with big government, the role of commodities in your investments, the pros and cons of inflation-hedging securities, and an investment strategy that has been highly successful historically. (92 Min.)

Mark T. Hebner - Big Losses, Big Government and Your Investments

Harry Markowitz gives an IFA Exclusive Presentation on Portfolio Theory Vs. Financial Engineering, and Their Roles in Financial Crises. Markowitz explains the difference between Portfolio Theory and Financial Engineering. Markowitz also covers Black Monday (October 19, 1987), Long Term Capital Management, and Now. (47 Min.)

Harry Markowitz - Portfolio Theory Vs. Financial Engineering, and Their Roles in Financial Crises

The first step on the index funds journey is to recognize active investor behavior. If all investors were lined up in a row, could the active investors be identified? Active investors actively engage in stock picking, time picking (market timing), manager picking, and style picking.

Step 1: Active Investors - Podcast Interview with Mark Hebner

Mark Hebner explains the Nobel Laureates. Mark suggests a higher power of non-biased information from academics who carefully analyze data and have that data peer reviewed before it is published. Mark identifies the five basic concepts of the Modern Portfolio Theory.

Step 2: Nobel Laureates - Podcast Interview with Mark Hebner

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Model Portfolios - Summary of all Models

IndexFunds.com Staff
Friday, January 01, 1999

 

 

25% Stocks

 

50% Stocks

 

65% Stocks

 

75% Stocks

 

100% Stocks

 

1973-1997 Models

 

Annual
Return
(%)

 

Annual
Risk
(%)
25% Stocks

Growth & Value, 50% U.S.

 

11.5

 

7.6

Value-Only, 50% U.S.

 

12.0

 

7.7

Growth & Value, 60% U.S.

 

11.5

 

7.6

Value-Only, 60% U.S.

 

12.0

 

7.7

Growth & Value, 70% U.S.

 

11.5

 

7.6

Value-Only, 70% U.S.

 

12.0

 

7.7

50% Stocks    

Growth & Value, 50% U.S.

 

12.9

 

10.2

Value-Only, 50% U.S.

 

14.0

 

10.5

Growth & Value, 60% U.S.

 

13.0

 

10.0

Value-Only, 60% U.S.

 

14.0

 

10.3

Growth & Value, 70% U.S.

 

13.1

 

10.0

Value-Only, 70% U.S.

 

14.0

 

10.2

65% Stocks    

Growth & Value, 50% U.S.

 

13.7

 

12.2

Value-Only, 50% U.S.

 

15.1

 

12.6

Growth & Value, 60% U.S.

 

13.8

 

12.1

Value-Only, 60% U.S.

 

15.1

 

12.3

Growth & Value, 70% U.S.

 

13.9

 

12.1

Value-Only, 70% U.S.

 

15.1

 

12.2

75% Stocks    

Growth & Value, 50% U.S.

 

14.1

 

13.8

Value-Only, 50% U.S.

 

15.8

 

14.2

Growth & Value, 60% U.S.

 

14.3

 

13.5

Value-Only, 60% U.S.

 

15.8

 

13.8

Growth & Value, 70% U.S.

 

14.4

 

13.5

Value-Only, 70% U.S.

 

15.9

 

13.6

100% Stocks    

Growth & Value, 50% U.S.

 

15.2

 

17.7

Value-Only, 50% U.S.

 

17.4

 

18.1

Growth & Value, 60% U.S.

 

15.4

 

17.4

Value-Only, 60% U.S.

 

17.5

 

17.6

Growth & Value, 70% U.S.

 

15.6

 

17.3

Value-Only, 70% U.S.

 

17.5

 

17.4

 

* Standard deviation of annual returns

Due to longer returns series back to 1973, the DFA Five-Year Government Bond index was used as a proxy for Global Fixed Income and the Morgan Stanley EAFE index was used for 1973 and 1974 as a proxy for International Large Value Stocks.

By law, advisors must state something like the following: "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This is especially true of model portfolios, which are not subject to specific economic and market factors."

We'll be more blunt: If you think you will realize these same returns over the next 25 years, especially factoring in advisor fees, fund expenses, and transaction costs, you may have an unpleasant surprise coming!

Enjoy!

IndexFunds.com Staff


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